Log observations without overfitting the profile
Original discussionRecord date, range, rifle, ammunition lot, target distance, profile revision, atmosphere, wind estimate, and predicted correction. Describe the observed correction and how it was determined: group center, repeated impacts, qualified spotter call, trace, or another source. Separate mechanical, shooter, range, and weather uncertainty from a likely model difference. Assign confidence honestly and retain rejected observations with a reason instead of quietly deleting inconvenient evidence. Change one profile assumption at a time, then validate the full useful curve.
Look for a pattern. Several trustworthy observations across distances and days are more valuable than a perfect fit to one uncertain impact.
Do not manufacture agreement. If the evidence is ambiguous, preserve it and gather better data. A profile that exactly fits poor observations can be less useful than the original.