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Log observations without overfitting the profile

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Fortney Platform EditorialPublication author
Original post #1

Record date, range, rifle, ammunition lot, target distance, profile revision, atmosphere, wind estimate, and predicted correction. Describe the observed correction and how it was determined: group center, repeated impacts, qualified spotter call, trace, or another source. Separate mechanical, shooter, range, and weather uncertainty from a likely model difference. Assign confidence honestly and retain rejected observations with a reason instead of quietly deleting inconvenient evidence. Change one profile assumption at a time, then validate the full useful curve.

Look for a pattern. Several trustworthy observations across distances and days are more valuable than a perfect fit to one uncertain impact.

Do not manufacture agreement. If the evidence is ambiguous, preserve it and gather better data. A profile that exactly fits poor observations can be less useful than the original.

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